The Watering Hole

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38638873/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-11/u-s-is-bankrupt-and-we-don-t-even-know-commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDDSGDP:IND
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2572-How-Did-The-Word-Ponzi-Get-Into-The-MSM.html


i could go on and on, but the fact remains we are coming to the end of the rope. every day more and more people wake up the the fact the the US cannot continue on it's path.
so here's the discussion, do you think we as a nation can survive entitlement cuts? social security, medicare, medicaid, etc. are the driving forces of our budgetary problems. what ways do you see us telling our country we can't afford to give them what is promised? whatever happens it will not be pretty. i think it's interesting this knowledge is coming mainstream now. for so long we have all had our head in the sand

The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!

And... it's almost 2012, the end of the world!

RIDE THE SNAKE!!!!!

unbelievable. how can you fail to acknowledge we are on an unsustainable path?

Not advocating cuts to the military-industrial complex then  :D

chase — Aug 12, 2010unbelievable. how can you fail to acknowledge we are on an unsustainable path?

I'm sure some pubs will come in to save the day in your opinion...

chase — Aug 12, 2010unbelievable. how can you fail to acknowledge we are on an unsustainable path?

Dude, it's all you ever talk about.  Of course the path is unsustainable--if the economy never recovers.  Is that what you are banking on?  I'm not.

Here ya go!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/11/AR2010081105864.html

I wonder why I don't hear many Pubs campaigning on the platform of "tax breaks for millionaires".  It would really resonate with the base, right?

There is a point
Needs a draconian approach


There's a need to to raise taxes on the middle classes, the rich do avoid it anyway.
Curtail wasteful spending on the sacred cows - like evaluate the whole military industrial complex budget which is closer to a trillion and some estimates above with the featherbed pensions and contracts.

Could knock off 1/2 trillion a year of the BD with those two alone.


Then knock as much off social programs as you can - but not so much that you have to increase spending on the military industrial complex to contain the fall out.
as the trap will be that  for every crack addict you save $100  from you will pay $1000 for some highly trained goon to police.

Get that wrong and you will simply transfer the social budget to the MIC's so they get to play with guns.
And hollywood can make movies about their "nobility" in the face of the social  scum they are saving the middle classes from.

Probably cheaper to keep paying the scum subsisdence - the last time the right experimented with solutions they ended up fighting scum in Iraq.


The lesson is dismiss solutions from people with a stake in the MIC - unknowingly or otherwise - it is self serving.

chase — Aug 12, 2010 for so long we have all had our head in the sand

When did you start thinking about this shit chase?

charger — Aug 12, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/0#3 date=1281632438]unbelievable. how can you fail to acknowledge we are on an unsustainable path?

Dude, it's all you ever talk about.  Of course the path is unsustainable--if the economy never recovers.  Is that what you are banking on?  I'm not.


tell me your joking. the current estimate is 14% GPD growth ANNUALLY to pay for our unfunded liabilities. the rate our economy is projected to grow in the forseeable future isn't even enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising. hoping the economy will "recover" isn't even an option

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/0#0 date=1281577181] for so long we have all had our head in the sand

When did you start thinking about this shit chase?

i didn't give a damn about it until i started researching who i would vote for in 2008. never took much of an interest in politics until than. don't even bother trying to tie this thread to the usual theme of "your only bringing this up because your backwards hillbilly racist kentucky ass doesn't like obama..." this path was laid out decades ago. unfortunately now it is coming to a head.

chase — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=BINGEWOOD link=1281577182/0#9 date=1281660810][quote author=chase link=1281577182/0#0 date=1281577181] for so long we have all had our head in the sand

When did you start thinking about this shit chase?

i didn't give a damn about it until i started researching who i would vote for in 2008. never took much of an interest in politics until than. don't even bother trying to tie this thread to the usual theme of "your only bringing this up because your backwards hillbilly racist kentucky ass doesn't like obama..." this path was laid out decades ago. unfortunately now it is coming to a head.


I've never said anything like that, nor would I.  You picked a great time to start looking at the "state of the union"...no wonder yer scared. hahahaaaha

charger — Aug 12, 2010Here ya go!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/11/AR2010081105864.html

I wonder why I don't hear many Pubs campaigning on the platform of "tax breaks for millionaires".  It would really resonate with the base, right?

were past the point of taxes realistically being able to do enough. the next year or so we are supposedly going to hit the point where the majority of tax revenue goes to service the interest on the debt. if you believe in the laffer curve, we wouldn't be able to raise enough revenue regardless of how high we raise taxes.

cutting everything is the only answer. defense, social security, medicaid, etc. must all be cut. it won't be fun or pretty

Waddabout 50's style taxation levels? heh heh

Are you saying we don't have money here or it's not moving?

fingers — Aug 12, 2010Not advocating cuts to the military-industrial complex then  :D

funny, but yes.

even more funny is the fact that the military has already funded several internal studies that have come to the conclusion that everything must be cut to deal with the US budget issues as a whole. they have suggested cutting everything from the military pension system down.

how many other government entities are working on scaling themselves back right now voluntarily?

Not the Congress, thass fo sho...

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010Waddabout 50's style taxation levels? heh heh

Are you saying we don't have money here or it's not moving?

this image sums it up nicely.

I'm terrified...RIDE THE SNAKE!!!!


Are you saying we aren't the greatest richest country in the world?

chase — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=BINGEWOOD link=1281577182/0#9 date=1281660810][quote author=chase link=1281577182/0#0 date=1281577181] for so long we have all had our head in the sand

When did you start thinking about this shit chase?

i didn't give a damn about it until i started researching who i would vote for in 2008. never took much of an interest in politics until than. don't even bother trying to tie this thread to the usual theme of "your only bringing this up because your backwards hillbilly racist kentucky ass doesn't like obama..." this path was laid out decades ago. unfortunately now it is coming to a head.


Yep.....seems I've been hearing about this happening all my life.

Is it finally here? I don't know.


But from listening to the news it sure seems  like it. The party may be over.

It is scary.

The Gov looks like a young couple getting married then getting into so much debt they loose everything and divorse and go bankrupt.
And the kids pay the price for fucked up parents.

 

Damn that Gov...just don't blame the rest of us, right?

Is it our falt?

It's not mine.  

Isn't that what everyone says...

So is it partly my fault? How?

If things really are as bad as the news says....chase has reason to be as concerned as he is.

I don't blame him for talking about it.

its everyones fault. the government (we) have collectively pulled demand forward for decades and leveraged ourselves out the ass. complacency became the norm as people were mostly apathetic about the government, and continued to elect leaders both dem and repub who did nothing but bribe the public with their own money. all that is left now is a magic trick hiding the fact that the emporer has no clothes and we really are broke, with no resolution in sight.

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/0#0 date=1281577181] for so long we have all had our head in the sand

When did you start thinking about this shit chase?
November 5, 2008. ;)

I fail to see the panic that you see.  You give a chart going back to 1995... that's worthless in this scenario.  You have to go back to the last time we had a recession this deep... Spending our way out of the Great Depression, we had debt to GDP ratios MUCH higher than we have today.  

The thing that annoys me the most is that you KNOW we have been here before, but you still act like this has never happened before and it's the end of the world.  We will survive this.  If you don't think we will, thanks for being a bummer, and no thanks for the lack of optimism.

I'm 99% sure you wouldn't post this crap all the time if McCain had been elected, and thus I find it VERY hard to take you seriously.  And don't tell me that this wouldn't be where we are if McCain was elected, we'd be within a few hundred billion of the same point.

charger — Aug 13, 2010
I'm 99% sure you wouldn't post this crap all the time if McCain had been elected, and thus I find it VERY hard to take you seriously.  And don't tell me that this wouldn't be where we are if McCain was elected, we'd be within a few hundred billion of the same point.

read my previous posts. i explain why i just now care. also see the post where i say that this has been coming for decades. bush/obama/clinton/ etc. are all to blame

charger — Aug 13, 2010
The thing that annoys me the most is that you KNOW we have been here before, but you still act like this has never happened before and it's the end of the world.  We will survive this.  If you don't think we will, thanks for being a bummer, and no thanks for the lack of optimism.

we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

pickmaster60 — Aug 13, 2010If things really are as bad as the news says....chase has reason to be as concerned as he is.

I don't blame him for talking about it.

Bad for who?




People can talk about whatever they want, this is the U.S. of A.

chase — Aug 13, 2010its everyones fault. the government (we) have collectively pulled demand forward for decades and leveraged ourselves out the ass. complacency became the norm as people were mostly apathetic about the government, and continued to elect leaders both dem and repub who did nothing but bribe the public with their own money. all that is left now is a magic trick hiding the fact that the emporer has no clothes and we really are broke, with no resolution in sight.

Who's broke?

chase — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=charger link=1281577182/25#27 date=1281671484]
I'm 99% sure you wouldn't post this crap all the time if McCain had been elected, and thus I find it VERY hard to take you seriously.  And don't tell me that this wouldn't be where we are if McCain was elected, we'd be within a few hundred billion of the same point.

read my previous posts. i explain why i just now care. also see the post where i say that this has been coming for decades. bush/obama/clinton/ etc. are all to blame

It's been coming for decades but you didn't care until it was presented as a catastrophe at the end of the last presidential campaign by bush n' company Inc.  Curious timing, you'd think they would have seen it coming at least a lil before or hid it until they were gone... but then you don't get to give away the money from the "children of the future" account with no strings attached...s'gotta be an "end of the nation"  style rush job to get that shit through.  That's also how you dump older workers while you bring down or stall wages for everyone else who should just feel lucky they get to keep their jobs.  The tops aren't taking any cuts tho, wouldn't be right or fair to those hard workers....they are the hardest workers you know.  Oh and speaking to the kids here, we're sorry but we spent "your" bread because everyone has 401k's and they hold their money and mortgages in banks... oh, and you'll have to wait until you're 75 to get your stipend...really sorry, truly.

It's these fuckers the gov. have been giving all the bribes to.  I mean they accumulate the hard working tax payers' money and  never spend it. They live high on the hog and, no, the money they spend does not get accumulated by anyone in this country.  You see they give their money to foreign nations so it leaves this fine country.  It's the poor who get new cheap Chinese goods all day long and they sent their jobs to China and India because they already have it made here and besides there are so many destitute people in those countries that they wanted them to be ok too...y'know kindred spirits n' such.  These fucking bums are about to get the finest healthcare the world has to offer but at least there's still an Ins. company systems to take a profit on top of the profit the hospital collects...anything else would be un-American!

This great nation is going down the tubes because of the high tax rates, especially on the rich.  They have no choice but to hide their money on lil islands and countries who held nazi money n' gold, toof gold even.  It's just not like it was back in the 50's when taxes on the top "earners" were reasonable...

MIC workers aren't gov employees at all...you see the companies they work for take a profit from the tax money they are paid, big difference there and VERY American...plus they can sell weapons to other countries at the same time!



I guess I could buy this shit if a higher percentage of the nation held the lions share of the wealth..even just a little higher.



Why wasn't Reagan in the list?

chase — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=charger link=1281577182/25#27 date=1281671484]
The thing that annoys me the most is that you KNOW we have been here before, but you still act like this has never happened before and it's the end of the world.  We will survive this.  If you don't think we will, thanks for being a bummer, and no thanks for the lack of optimism.

we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

There is one big difference, this time it didn't start with the Wall st. cats jumping out of windows...jumping for joy maybe...

Where'd we get the WWII money?

chase — Aug 13, 2010i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Even the wealthy partisans?

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#28 date=1281672635][quote author=charger link=1281577182/25#27 date=1281671484]
I'm 99% sure you wouldn't post this crap all the time if McCain had been elected, and thus I find it VERY hard to take you seriously.  And don't tell me that this wouldn't be where we are if McCain was elected, we'd be within a few hundred billion of the same point.

Why wasn't Reagan in the list?


the list wasn't all inclusive. if it were it would stretch back to roosevelt

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#29 date=1281673145][quote author=charger link=1281577182/25#27 date=1281671484]
The thing that annoys me the most is that you KNOW we have been here before, but you still act like this has never happened before and it's the end of the world.  We will survive this.  If you don't think we will, thanks for being a bummer, and no thanks for the lack of optimism.

we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

There is one big difference, this time it didn't start with the Wall st. cats jumping out of windows...jumping for joy maybe...

Where'd we get the WWII money?

chase — Aug 13, 2010i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Even the wealthy partisans?


yes. which i don't see happening. the current political scene is so far from what it was intended to be it's sickening. it's no longer a place for reason and debate

BINGEWOOD — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#28 date=1281672635][quote author=charger link=1281577182/25#27 date=1281671484]
I'm 99% sure you wouldn't post this crap all the time if McCain had been elected, and thus I find it VERY hard to take you seriously.  And don't tell me that this wouldn't be where we are if McCain was elected, we'd be within a few hundred billion of the same point.

read my previous posts. i explain why i just now care. also see the post where i say that this has been coming for decades. bush/obama/clinton/ etc. are all to blame

It's been coming for decades but you didn't care until it was presented as a catastrophe at the end of the last presidential campaign by bush n' company Inc.  Curious timing, you'd think they would have seen it coming at least a lil before or hid it until they were gone... but then you don't get to give away the money from the "children of the future" account with no strings attached...s'gotta be an "end of the nation"  style rush job to get that shit through.  That's also how you dump older workers while you bring down or stall wages for everyone else who should just feel lucky they get to keep their jobs.  The tops aren't taking any cuts tho, wouldn't be right or fair to those hard workers....they are the hardest workers you know.  Oh and speaking to the kids here, we're sorry but we spent "your" bread because everyone has 401k's and they hold their money and mortgages in banks... oh, and you'll have to wait until you're 75 to get your stipend...really sorry, truly.



i don't agree with what bush did around october. selling the panic to push through the bailout was terrible. it actually reminds me of obama's actions at stimulus time telling horror stories about what the unemployment rate would do if the stimulus de jour wasn't pushed through. the point is, it isn't squarely any particular presidents fault, both parties are to blame. all that we can do now it try to put aside differences and fix this shit. unfortunately the current game is to isolate and blame the others

chase — Aug 13, 2010
we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Your arithmetic is not correct,
the budget deficit is 14% of GDP - that's bad,  but it is not growing by 14% of GDP every year, that would be ludicrously bad.
If you have been lead to think that, then I can see why you are in panic

Very Simplistically

If the Budget was held constant at the level it is now
3% growth would reduce the deficit to a surplus in around 13 years

If you cut the budget by 3% a year at the same time as 3% growth - you would get a surplus in 7 years

If you had zero growth but cut the budget by 3% a year - you would have a surplus in around 13 years.

So obviously the best hope is for both,


And Clinton actually reduced debt as  %gdp during his term.

Reagan and both Bush terms were the ones responsible for growing debt most in recent years and setting it in that direction of growing it by making budget deficits the norm even in good times.

Obama  - well he inherited a crisis

fingers — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#29 date=1281673145]
we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Your arithmetic is not correct,
the budget deficit is 14% of GDP - that's bad,  but it is not growing by 14% of GDP every year, that would be ludicrously bad.
If you have been lead to think that, then I can see why you are in panic

Very Simplistically

If the Budget was held constant at the level it is now
3% growth would reduce the deficit to a surplus in around 13 years

If you cut the budget by 3% a year at the same time as 3% growth - you would get a surplus in 7 years

If you had zero growth but cut the budget by 3% a year - you would have a surplus in around 13 years.

So obviously the best hope is for both,


And Clinton actually reduced debt as  %gdp during his term.





All your pretty math won't save you!  The sky is falling!
I'm so panicked, I think I'm going to go out and get myself a latte.

Chase, read this and tell me if you agree.  I don't know enough about it to formulate my own thoughts, but I have always thought that tax cuts were not useful at all...

http://www.greatreality.com/DebtFAQ.htm

Sounds like we will have to increase taxes.  Is that a good solution?  It doesn't seem like cutting outlays by 9-10% is possible.

Do you agree or disagree?

Which politician is going to be willing and able to increase taxes?  Who will present this argument in their presidential platform?  I know you think we should cut, but, don't you think the required cuts will be even more untenable?  What politician will promise to cut medicare, social security, or defense spending?

fingers — Aug 13, 2010[quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#29 date=1281673145]
we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Your arithmetic is not correct,
the budget deficit is 14% of GDP - that's bad,  but it is not growing by 14% of GDP every year, that would be ludicrously bad.
If you have been lead to think that, then I can see why you are in panic

Very Simplistically

If the Budget was held constant at the level it is now
3% growth would reduce the deficit to a surplus in around 13 years

If you cut the budget by 3% a year at the same time as 3% growth - you would get a surplus in 7 years

If you had zero growth but cut the budget by 3% a year - you would have a surplus in around 13 years.

So obviously the best hope is for both,


And Clinton actually reduced debt as  %gdp during his term.

Reagan and both Bush terms were the ones responsible for growing debt most in recent years and setting it in that direction of growing it by making budget deficits the norm even in good times.

Obama  - well he inherited a crisis




you really want to argue with the IMF? they just released the results of their look into americas financial state. and i quote... "“The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

read the whole thing yourself.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10248.pdf

the current state of our finances put into terms you can understand and relate to equals an individual bringing home $2500 a week but spending $3800. the problem thats going to stop the show is the retiring wave of baby boomers who will draw entitlement benefits.

take the 2 minutes to read the article as it lays the math out. ignore the doom and gloom tone if you want to, the facts remain

chase — Aug 14, 2010
you really want to argue with the IMF? they just released the results of their look into americas financial state. and i quote... "“The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

read the whole thing yourself.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10248.pdf

I am reading it myself.  Did you really read the whole thing or just the section that interested you?  Lots positive in there.  What do you think of section V?  I found that interesting, the idea of reducing or eliminating the mortgage tax deduction on the wealthy.  Seems the Obama administration has already proposed that, and it's been stalled out in committee.  Do you really think that any of these fixes can happen?  There's not much enthusiasm for actually fixing any problems in the populace.  They mostly just want to keep their money, and to make sure the rich get to keep theirs...

Conclusion of Section V... The U.S. Administration is appropriately considering fundamental reforms to its housing finance system.

Interesting.

Hmm... I'm not sure you read the report you posted...

Implementing a fiscal adjustment equivalent to 2 ¾ percent of GDP by 2015 as
suggested in the Staff Report reduces considerably the fiscal gap (Table 5). Were the
adjustment to be followed by a permanent cap on Medicare spending, as mandated under the
Final Healthcare Legislation to the Independent Payment Advisory Board and entailing the
adoption of a rule that controls the excess growth in healthcare costs from Medicare, this
would eliminate 40 percent of the fiscal gap, going a long way in eliminating the country’s
fiscal problems (Table 5).

And I'm not sure I agree with the conclusions.  Note the spike between 1940-1960.  Obviously steps were taken that caused the spike to drop back down.  We are currently at 2010---even though the graphs look insane going out to 2083, we are still well below the 1940-1960 spot.

You know why all those other countries are doing so much better with their debt?  They tax their citizens a lot more.  And they are still successful, and solvent, and people still like to live there.  This report tells me we are a bunch of spoiled brats as a rule, we love low taxes and especially love them for the rich, we are poorly educated for the workforce, and we don't understand the necessity of taxes.  Until those factors change, you're right, we are fucked.  

What's your solution?

chase — Aug 14, 2010[quote author=fingers link=1281577182/25#37 date=1281730000][quote author=chase link=1281577182/25#29 date=1281673145]
we are not in the same place as we have been before. comparing this recession to 1929-30 is not accurate. if you look we were only able to escape the debt load by increasing our GDP radically via WWII. as i have said previously in this thread, we would need somewhere around a 14% GDP growth annually to enable us to satisfy our unfunded liabilities. in no way shape or form will we meet that type of growth. it is simply impossible to grow the economy enough to put our debt back in its place. to make matters worse, the fed has now shot it's load and has nothing left in its bag of tricks. quantitative easing didn't work, QEII which will come along soon will only fuck the balance sheet up even more.

i don't understand how you can ignore what is happening and try to play petty politics. solving this problem will require everyone to forget partisanship and do what is right for our nation to survive. sadly i don't see that happening now

Your arithmetic is not correct,
the budget deficit is 14% of GDP - that's bad,  but it is not growing by 14% of GDP every year, that would be ludicrously bad.
If you have been lead to think that, then I can see why you are in panic

Very Simplistically

If the Budget was held constant at the level it is now
3% growth would reduce the deficit to a surplus in around 13 years

If you cut the budget by 3% a year at the same time as 3% growth - you would get a surplus in 7 years

If you had zero growth but cut the budget by 3% a year - you would have a surplus in around 13 years.

So obviously the best hope is for both,


And Clinton actually reduced debt as  %gdp during his term.

Reagan and both Bush terms were the ones responsible for growing debt most in recent years and setting it in that direction of growing it by making budget deficits the norm even in good times.

Obama  - well he inherited a crisis




you really want to argue with the IMF? they just released the results of their look into americas financial state. and i quote... "“The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

read the whole thing yourself.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10248.pdf

wow - how dense are you?

You should stop worrying about this as you don't have a clue as
to what the numbers mean -  14% growth needed
man that us embarrassingly illiterate.

The IMF uses the same math I outlined for you.

I suggest you read a fucking book.

 

fingers — Aug 14, 2010
I suggest you read a fucking book.

 

And not The Tea Party Manifesto.

Come on Fingers. Add "you ignorant cunt to it." I love it when you do that. ;D ;D Even to me. ;D