The Watering Hole

this site is sobering. almost all of the important numbers laid bare in front of you. i especially like the part where we spend 2x what we take in. thats sustainable isn't it?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Goddammit.  If only McCain had won, those numbers would be so different.

gdp is massively wrong - it is about 13- 14  trillion not 8.5 trillion.

Which kinda fucks up any credibility in the other numbers.

In any case  - the bulk of this deficit has been run up by republican administrations over the years the last time the US had a budget surplus was under Clinton back in 2000.

In fact Bush added 5 trillion - he doubled it in only 8 years.

shove 01/01/2001 to 01/01/2009 into this - your own government figures

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway

For  Obama to be as successful as Bush in managing the finances anything less than 20 trillion in debt by leaving off at the start of 2017 will be a Bush like republican  performance.

Chase - I can understand you are worried about this, you should be.
But you voted for 4 more years - for the continuation of  the most profligate and fiscally irresponsible administration in history.

Sorry but that just doesn't scan with your professed concerns.

You should be cursing the republicans for the shit.

So therefore I think your issue is not fiscal but is a purely political.

If you could take the political blinkers off you would see it.

Bush doubled the debt with no notable policy on anything apart from playing geopolitical  war games and playing a tough guy.

How did he do this -  by dishing out tax cuts the country couldn't afford while  he kept spending like there was no tomorrow.
Those  tax cuts were then fed into the  big phoney economic money bubble - leading to a crunch.

He made no tough choices at all - he just made easy choices politically.

For Bush  - there was no tomorrow and a cynic would say he just did what politicians do
His only choice was - Lose an election now vs maybe bankrupting the country down the line when it is someone else's problem.

He and his administration were just as lousy as any of the banking heads at Lehman or AIG.

His administrations last parting shot was to make the crisis an Armageddon  game over scenario by letting Lehman collapse into dust overnight.

That scared the shite out him and he had to act - but that action alone will cost several trillion more in debt over the coming years shoring up his last fiasco act as president.

He was a disaster as president fiscally - worst in history, he nearly destroyed the US and future generations (worldwide in the west at least - he handed things to China on a plate)  will have to pay for the near miss.

Yet you still voted 4 more years.

So what's up - is your ideology incapable of facing facts

Is it simply easier to see the world like this

scary times.

turning that graph around from pointing north is not going to be painless.

http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

this video puts it in perspective. by the way the numbers were good, i double checked

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc

fingers — Aug 05, 2009In fact Bush added 5 trillion - he doubled it in only 8 years.

shove 01/01/2001 to 01/01/2009 into this - your own government figures

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway

For  Obama to be as successful as Bush in managing the finances anything less than 20 trillion in debt by leaving off at the start of 2017 will be a Bush like republican  performance.

Chase - I can understand you are worried about this, you should be.
But you voted for 4 more years - for the continuation of  the most profligate and fiscally irresponsible administration in history.

Sorry but that just doesn't scan with your professed concerns.

You should be cursing the republicans for the shit.

So therefore I think your issue is not fiscal but is a purely political.

If you could take the political blinkers off you would see it.

Bush doubled the debt with no notable policy on anything apart from playing geopolitical  war games and playing a tough guy.

How did he do this -  by dishing out tax cuts the country couldn't afford while  he kept spending like there was no tomorrow.
Those  tax cuts were then fed into the  big phoney economic money bubble - leading to a crunch.

He made no tough choices at all - he just made easy choices politically.

For Bush  - there was no tomorrow and a cynic would say he just did what politicians do
His only choice was - Lose an election now vs maybe bankrupting the country down the line when it is someone else's problem.

He and his administration were just as lousy as any of the banking heads at Lehman or AIG.

His administrations last parting shot was to make the crisis an Armageddon  game over scenario by letting Lehman collapse into dust overnight.

That scared the shite out him and he had to act - but that action alone will cost several trillion more in debt over the coming years shoring up his last fiasco act as president.

He was a disaster as president fiscally - worst in history, he nearly destroyed the US and future generations (worldwide in the west at least - he handed things to China on a plate)  will have to pay for the near miss.

Yet you still voted 4 more years.

So what's up - is your ideology incapable of facing facts

Is it simply easier to see the world like this

how do you know who i voted for?

this situation is so far past this petty partisan politics bullshit it isn't funny. our problem isn't democrats or republicans; its a mindset that this spending is OK, consequences be damned. do i dislike obama? yes. i would dislike any clown in office sinking the ship fiscally, be it republican, democrat, or other. bush was a terrible president in many categories as well, so don't think i was a fanboy.

and talking about bush doubling the debt... obama is on pace to more than double bush's. just sayin

fingers — Aug 05, 2009gdp is massively wrong - it is about 13- 14  trillion not 8.5 trillion.

the GDP is a "clock" that accumulates every year. the number is right, it's simply the GDP produced to this exact point in the year. look at the clock on mindnight december 31 and it will be somewhere around 14 trillion.

want to see some cute graphs fingers? lets zoom that graph of yours out and look at obama's PROPOSED budget....



how about that pic of the national debt under bush? lets look at obamas

here's a fun one

and another

It is really hard to see how you voted in the last election - you are just so nuanced and balanced on the issues.

The GDP figure going up and being reset to zero every NY - yeah - that is a really insightful measure of economics.

I took it as an honest figure - it was going up as it was supposed to be an ESTIMATE OF GDP rising in the same time.

You know like you have a debt of say 200K and your income is 50k and you are increasing both at different rates.

if your debt is going up faster than your income then yes - IT IS BAD.

But to throw in a stupid gimmick so that at midnight january of next year your debt is 200K but income (i.e. GDP) is now zero, just flies in the face of honesty and has been spun by people who seek to exploit the ignorant.

GDP has a carefully defined meaning and you should look it up and read a book.

Increasing GDP over a year is called "GROWTH" - yes you know that economic term.

This year I would have expected the GDP figure on a site like that to have shown it falling/

But then I expect figures to mean something and be presented honestly - republicans clearly don't.

But Bush did double the debt and crash the economy.

You know the old irish joke about directions.

Q I want to get to Limerick ?
A Well if I wanted to get to Limerick I wouldn't be starting from here.

You are just intent on hanging it on a patsy -

Obama is starting where your guys left off with the deficit accelerating heading north

If you seriously think that anyone could change that projection in 8 months you are delusional.

Any projection made now about the future is based on that past the obvious given fiscal problems.

You certainly wouldn't want to start from the spot marked here by Bush as a new president.

chase — Aug 05, 2009
how do you know who i voted for?

Because you told us.  How could anyone forget your "end of the world" post on election night?

chase — Aug 05, 2009want to see some cute graphs fingers? lets zoom that graph of yours out and look at obama's PROPOSED budget....



how about that pic of the national debt under bush? lets look at obamas

Fucking hell man - if that is the true outcome things are looking relatively good - study the graphs you put up

It says that  by 2019 Obama only increases the debt by (edit) < 2 trillion and has implemented health reform programs.
The economic point behind health reform is that it will increase the growth rate of the economy as it reduces the dead hand of health care costs on activity - sure - that remains to be seen.

But do you think that it is impossible ? seeing as the US spends twice as much on it as a % of GDP than Europe.
(the real GDP number - defined by economics - not that "for the consumption of the ignorant" number you are defending earlier)

The point about debt is to keep it manageable in terms of income and economics requires big judgement calls about how to manage that and it is not necessarily intuitive to the layman - it can be very counter intuitive in fact.

Seriously - read some books on economics and stop eating the slop from political spinners.

You seem to be a smart kid - you are just being exploited by politically obsessed morons.


the graph - study it a bit - I think you are sending the wrong message with this one - if I was a desperate ravenous partisan republican hyena I would give you such  a slap for bringing this up as evidence.

charger — Aug 05, 2009[quote author=chase link=1249451495/0#6 date=1249507998]
how do you know who i voted for?

Because you told us.  How could anyone forget your "end of the world" post on election night?


I forgot that - strange how it was still obvious though :)

Sorry I just love this graph
Did Obama make it himself.

After 8 years of reasonable growth that would be a reduction of the national debt as % of GDP

Wooo Hooo says Obama

who predicted this Chase ?

did you stray onto the wrong website or something ?

fingers — Aug 05, 2009Sorry I just love this graph
Did Obama make it himself.

It's a graph from The Heritage Foundation - a conservative think tank here in the states. They like fudging numbers to make Democrats look bad. It's their raison d'etre!

Tripper

Oh I see

it is from the "Council of Economic Advisers, US Office of Management and Budget"

Sounds like a dodgy bunch to me, where are the really big names in these matters like O'Reilly, Hannity and that weirdo guy  I posted earlier who had a tantrum about it.


I dunno but it sounds like Sarah Palin is needed to sort it out.

She can use GWB as important expert consultant on how it was possible to rack up 5 trillion in debt when you metaphorically  start while already in Limerick - lol :D

Tripper — Aug 05, 2009[quote author=fingers link=1249451495/0#17 date=1249511322]Sorry I just love this graph
Did Obama make it himself.

It's a graph from The Heritage Foundation - a conservative think tank here in the states. They like fudging numbers to make Democrats look bad. It's their raison d'etre!

Tripper



But the idiots are making him look good !!! are they just too stupid to realise it.

Fucking hell - I am not sure any one here gets how incredible these figures are - they are fantastic - Obama will be happy to settle for them

They mean a % GDP decrease in debt over 8 years - unless the US stagnates.

Even notional increase - 5 trillion under Bush in benign conditions (wtf) vs Obama only increasing it by < 2 trillion.

Which is notionally over 8 years

Bush increased debt by 100%
Obama increases debt by 10-15%

growth of the US economy over 8 years at an  average of 2% means a reduction of debt as a % of GDP.

That is wild if that is hostile spinning for  Obama.

I don't actually believe those figures - I expect it can't be turned around that quickly.

Bush had it heading for 20 trillion in 8 years and I think 15T would be a good show in this scenario  and I hope that GDP catches up to keep it still manageable.

12 would be a truly amazing result.






It is hilarious

Publicly owned debt my ass - it is all publicly owned.

chase — Aug 05, 2009and another

Were you trying to make sure Fingers chart was accurate with this chart? ;D ;D ;D

That chart is the estimated length of their dicks and the general direction they held them in. :)

I love (est)

Our  guy wasn't so good but yours is worse by 215% (est)

Sure Bush increased national debt by $ 5T in 8 years
But your guy has it increased it by 7T (est)

OK our guy created a situation where the debt was rising at a grossly  accelerating rate - known in the biz as having a very high gamma position.
But his losses stopped on the day he left the  office - your guy is stuck with the Bush position.

In trader terms - taking over president of the US is like taking over CEO of AIG or Citibank, without the backstop of a government.

You are the government and the guy who has exited stage left has left you with his shit

Well, if Chase were actually worried about the debt alone, he would be happy with the situation as history shows that a Democratic president is much better than republicans at handling our deficit.

It's obvious he has a huge problem with Obama. Along with democrats I guess.

Yeah, Obama has spent money. But we are seeing positive results of his spending as the economy is improving, housing values are being reported to have stopped their decline, and Biden has learned to shut his pie hole. That's dead opposite of Bush's spending results.

its impossible to think that i don't like republicans or democrats isn't it. can't we have an argument about something without interjecting that bullshit. do i like obama? no. did i think mccain was better? yes. there are plenty of democrats I like and plenty of republicans I can't stand. Obama just happens to spend money like a drunken sailor. while mccain was clearly not a fairytale candidate the worse he would have done is what obama is doing now which is essentially more of the same we've seen from washington for the last 20 years.

no need to lecture me in economics fingers, i know you know what your talking about but i have a solid foundation in econ courses that taught the basics. your saying my sources are slanted to the right? how about the congressional budget office info? it paints just as bleak a picture.



this chart has the nation forced to borrow more than 9 trillion over the next decade.

Hookbender — Aug 06, 2009Well, if Chase were actually worried about the debt alone, he would be happy with the situation as history shows that a Democratic president is much better than republicans at handling our deficit.

It's obvious he has a huge problem with Obama. Along with democrats I guess.

Yeah, Obama has spent money. But we are seeing positive results of his spending as the economy is improving, housing values are being reported to have stopped their decline, and Biden has learned to shut his pie hole. That's dead opposite of Bush's spending results.

huge problem with obama? yes i think that's obvious. as to what history shows? who gives a fuck. the current situation has never occured before. somehow our leaders have decided to work our way out of debt by borrowing more money to spend.

how do you figure our economy is improving as a result of obama's spending?

payroll is dropping


purchasing power has plummeted


earnings fell off the earth


personal income dropped 1.3%
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

seasonally adjusted sales down slightly less than 6% while federal tax revenues are diving the fastest since the great depression


domestic debt as a percentage of GDP is flying high

fingers — Aug 05, 2009I love (est)

Our  guy wasn't so good but yours is worse by 215% (est)

Sure Bush increased national debt by $ 5T in 8 years
But your guy has it increased it by 7T (est)

OK our guy created a situation where the debt was rising at a grossly  accelerating rate - known in the biz as having a very high gamma position.
But his losses stopped on the day he left the  office - your guy is stuck with the Bush position.

In trader terms - taking over president of the US is like taking over CEO of AIG or Citibank, without the backstop of a government.

You are the government and the guy who has exited stage left has left you with his shit

i can appreciate that point. i'm not arguing bush=greenspan. what i can't stand about obama is he won't look at the facts and say "whoa, lets slow this train down". as crazy as it sounds i would at this point rather see a very, very painful correction and move on than see the whole house of cards come tumbling down later

best thing on the CBO's site is the graph that shows the uncertainty of their long term projections...




heh.

(est).. gotta love it ;)

chase — Aug 06, 2009its impossible to think that i don't like republicans or democrats isn't it. can't we have an argument about something without interjecting that bullshit. do i like obama? no. did i think mccain was better? yes. there are plenty of democrats I like and plenty of republicans I can't stand. Obama just happens to spend money like a drunken sailor. while mccain was clearly not a fairytale candidate the worse he would have done is what obama is doing now which is essentially more of the same we've seen from washington for the last 20 years.

no need to lecture me in economics fingers, i know you know what your talking about but i have a solid foundation in econ courses that taught the basics. your saying my sources are slanted to the right? how about the congressional budget office info? it paints just as bleak a picture.



this chart has the nation forced to borrow more than 9 trillion over the next decade.

Did you criticize Bush for his spending? As in going to war with a country and jailing it's leader for something he hadn't done or didn't have? WMD's? Does deregulation ring a bell? Why do you like McCain? Did his run at President impress you, like his choice for VP for instance? Ya think he wouldn't have spent some money too?  

chase — Aug 06, 2009[quote author=Hookbender link=1249451495/25#26 date=1249518091]Well, if Chase were actually worried about the debt alone, he would be happy with the situation as history shows that a Democratic president is much better than republicans at handling our deficit.

It's obvious he has a huge problem with Obama. Along with democrats I guess.

Yeah, Obama has spent money. But we are seeing positive results of his spending as the economy is improving, housing values are being reported to have stopped their decline, and Biden has learned to shut his pie hole. That's dead opposite of Bush's spending results.

huge problem with obama? yes i think that's obvious. as to what history shows? who gives a fuck. the current situation has never occured before. somehow our leaders have decided to work our way out of debt by borrowing more money to spend.

how do you figure our economy is improving as a result of obama's spending?

payroll is dropping


purchasing power has plummeted


earnings fell off the earth


personal income dropped 1.3%
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

seasonally adjusted sales down slightly less than 6% while federal tax revenues are diving the fastest since the great depression


domestic debt as a percentage of GDP is flying high







Wait? What do you mean who gives a fuck about history? You think that if another hurricane like like the one that hit New Orleans, was headed to the same area history wouldn't be useful? As in people really need to get out. As in the government should actually do something?

And since this hasn't ever happened before, don't ya think their may be a chance that Obama's plan could work? Show me history where it hasn't? We don't know if what Obama is doing will work or not because it's never been attempted, right? So if we don't know it won't work, why spend all this time bitching about it when it has a chance of success?

Do you have any evidence to show me that illustrates this is going to fail. I've shown you evidence that it is working, and add to that the new claims for unemployment dropped again.

Is the only reason you don't like Obama the money spending and healthcare issue? Might I remind you that Obama is at least trying to help people, companies, and America? Bush basically damn near destroyed all the above.  

hmn, u6 is at 16.5% now. good think unemployment is under control.

chase — Aug 06, 2009[quote author=fingers link=1249451495/25#25 date=1249516485]
i can appreciate that point. i'm not arguing bush=greenspan. what i can't stand about obama is he won't look at the facts and say "whoa, lets slow this train down". as crazy as it sounds i would at this point rather see a very, very painful correction and move on than see the whole house of cards come tumbling down later

With all doe respect, you're nuts.  Your candidate got 42,000 votes.  Any president who forces the country to go through a very painful correction is going to get about that many, too.  Do you think that yelling about it is going to suddenly make the country adopt the incredibly unpopular policies of your candidate of choice?  

The bottom line is, no one but you and maybe a million other people want to see the country go through a very painful correction.  No politician could stomach watching the country get completely fucked and unemployment of 20% and foreclosures everywhere.  So while that might be appealing to you, it is not appealing to almost anyone else.  McCain, if he was president, would be doing shit to limit our suffering AND insure recovery.  Would yhou be complaining if it was McCain, and we were maybe 100 billion LESS in the whole?  I doubt it.  But that's a fucking drop in the bucket.  Obama is a politician, he wants to get elected again, he wants to be successful, and he wants success for the country.  Only the extreme fringe wants the country to collapse into severe distress and chaos.  Which leads me back to your guy getting 42,000 votes.  That's 3 hundredths of a percent.  The Green party candidate was 4x more popular, fer chrissakes.  

You think anyone else wants the kind of catastrophe you want?  

I don't.    

You keep saying "nothing like this has ever happened before".  I refer you again to my previous posted image:





Indeed.

I'm not sure whether this is all very boy who cried wolf, or very chicken little, but either way, there is some fairy tale at work on the extreme right...

chase — Aug 07, 2009hmn, u6 is at 16.5% now. good think unemployment is under control.

Never said it's under control. Didn't imply, dream, or imagine it was. Maybe you should re-read my statement.

What is u6? And what is at 16.5%? What was a good think? You drinkin?  ::) ;D

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090807/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy


Maybe you should take a few steps back Chase! ;)

U6 is the unemployment measure that includes people that stopped looking for full-time work along with those that took part-time jobs but still seek full-time employment.

Thanks Sheep. Seems they shouldn't count people who aren't looking for work.  

nah, they count them because they -were- looking but gave up... so they're still unemployed.

here's another one for the reading list...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2009/08/07/ST2009080703665.html

will be interesting to see if a trend develops in the next few months. encouraging... sort of feels like we're in a bottom.. but who knows.

I'm most interested in the upcoming fed moves - how they intend to ward off crazy inflation... will be very interesting to see that unfold. the banker dudes I know are freaking out about future inflation (like, really freaking out - OMG BUY TIPS!!!... heh). either bernanke's a genius or we're totally screwed... lol, crazy times we're living in, that's for sure.

One thing to remember, just as a side note, is that one of the goals of Obama's action is to lay a foundation for growth of our economy. He wants and intends to fix the economy, but he must build a strong foundation to begin this process.

To many people think laying this foundation and fixing this economy will come without pains. They also think it can be fixed with a few changes. It's way more complicated than that.....Chase. :D

ironsheep — Aug 08, 2009
I'm most interested in the upcoming fed moves - how they intend to ward off crazy inflation... will be very interesting to see that unfold. the banker dudes I know are freaking out about future inflation (like, really freaking out - OMG BUY TIPS!!!... heh). either bernanke's a genius or we're totally screwed... lol, crazy times we're living in, that's for sure.

don't bring common sense into this thread sheep. the money created out of thin air to pay for all this will have no bearing on reality. the bond market won't ever respond....

Hookbender — Aug 08, 2009
To many people think laying this foundation and fixing this economy will come without pains. They also think it can be fixed with a few changes. It's way more complicated than that.....Chase. :D

since obama called you last night and laid out his plans to you alone, please, enlighten us.

don't talk down to me like i'm an idiot. we don't agree and thats fine, but don't feed me some shit like that and expect me to lie down.

charger — Aug 07, 2009You keep saying "nothing like this has ever happened before".  I refer you again to my previous posted image:





Indeed.

I'm not sure whether this is all very boy who cried wolf, or very chicken little, but either way, there is some fairy tale at work on the extreme right...

missed this one. wasn't their a major world event during that steep climb? something that happened from 1939-1945? oh thats right WWII. compare the chart from 2001-present and compare from 39-45. quite different.

Hookbender — Aug 08, 2009[quote author=chase link=1249451495/25#33 date=1249625964]hmn, u6 is at 16.5% now. good think unemployment is under control.

Never said it's under control. Didn't imply, dream, or imagine it was. Maybe you should re-read my statement.

What is u6? And what is at 16.5%? What was a good think? You drinkin?  ::) ;D


no, i'm educated. how can you argue about this stuff and not have a clue what u6 is?

chase — Aug 08, 2009[quote author=Hookbender link=1249451495/25#41 date=1249744680]
To many people think laying this foundation and fixing this economy will come without pains. They also think it can be fixed with a few changes. It's way more complicated than that.....Chase. :D

since obama called you last night and laid out his plans to you alone, please, enlighten us.

don't talk down to me like i'm an idiot. we don't agree and thats fine, but don't feed me some shit like that and expect me to lie down.

Obama's plans have been laid out on T.V., by Obama himself, and are all over the internet.

I'm not talking to you like your and idiot, yet. But it seems you've been fed a lot of conservative crap that you've filled yourself with quite nicely. Were you sitting up during this time, or laying in your bed?

I really don't give a shit what you do, period.

If you look at the end of that sentence that pissed you off, you'll find a laughing face. That means I was somewhat joking.... fucker. :)

chase — Aug 08, 2009[quote author=Hookbender link=1249451495/25#36 date=1249690497][quote author=chase link=1249451495/25#33 date=1249625964]hmn, u6 is at 16.5% now. good think unemployment is under control.

Never said it's under control. Didn't imply, dream, or imagine it was. Maybe you should re-read my statement.

What is u6? And what is at 16.5%? What was a good think? You drinkin?  ::) ;D


no, i'm educated. how can you argue about this stuff and not have a clue what u6 is?

Are you implying that your smarter than me? Did you take english courses? Did you know that all sentences should start with capital letters? Pretty basic stuff, right Mr. Educated?

How? Well sonny, I hate to let you down but I don't know everything about everything. And when I don't know something, I either ask questions, or find the answer on the net. And I think I'm allowed to have reasonable opinions on things even if I don't have a degree in the subject being discussed. I could be wrong.

Now what exactly was that "good think", Mr. Educated? Can you answer that for me? ;D

And where did I say unemployment was under control? Where did I come close to implying this? Enlighten me, Mr. Educated.